Hey everyone, thanks for making your stop for weather information right here on the KSPR Weather Blog. Boy has this been a fun one to forecast and it sure has been an evolving forecast to say the least.

Let me point out that this setup is not like ANY of the previous snows we have had this year, and is not typical for the Ozarks. The fact that 2 different storm systems are phasing to sort of combine for one makes for an ever so tricky forecast as slight shifts in either track changes things.

So we look at the track of the low to the north, which is our colder air, and see it arriving as anticipated late Sunday night. But then the track of our southern low has inched or should I say "miled" further south. What this does is leave us more confident that the cold air will be in place, but it also reduces snow totals from previous thoughts. View the track of the low below.

Now we have been watching the NAM and GFS for days now. But I thought I would pull up the HPC forecast for precipitation. This forecast uses a blend of models and has at least some human interpretation to it. As you can see below liquid equiv. of about .5 to 1" of precipitation across the viewing area with higher amounts in far southern MO.

THE HPC also shows a graphic for areas they expect to see 4" of snow or more. The red circled area is 70% chance. Confidence is pretty high as you can see when you get the red circle.

But now lets look at the same graphic, but instead probability of 8" or more. They have the green circle, of 40% and moderate probability.

Now lets look at the NAM snowfall output. The latest 12Z Really backed off on the amounts from previous runs on Friday that showed 10"-16" at one point. As you can see below far less.

The GFS, in my opinion is WAY more believable and I will most likely be basing my own forecast off of this.

Here is the output of our HI-Res Futurecast model

So the question that begs to be answered is so how much are we going to get. With what I see as of this point, is that widespread amounts of 3"-7" are likely and to be honest I can't find an area over another that may see more, except for along the MO and AR line where locally higher amounts will be possible. I don't see double digit snow amounts likely with this event, as those will be confined across central AR. I have not gone into the TV station yet to record a VLOG as I am writing this from home this afternoon, but I will have an update later once I get in, and I will have my official forecast graphic then.

Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lighty

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