Good morning! 

Currently, light rain and light freezing rain falling across parts of the Ozarks.  Really... this isn't going to be anything that significant.  Temperatures will warm quickly, everything will turn to rain and it will remain rather light.  Tomorrow... everything changes!  Let's take a look.

First things first, the Winter Weather Watch has been extended to include MORE counties for MORE time.  This watch/warning (those in the darker pink) will run into Friday afternoon.

Models continue to s-l-o-w this system down little by little.  The storm has made landfall which increases are forecasting accuracy. 

This storm is going to dig south.  Once it moves into Texas... it will then start to make it's trek northward.  Time frame for precipitation to start looks to be later Thursday afternoon.  A few models showing it starting as rain.  I tend to think it will be cold enough Thursday afternoon to see sleet/snow. 

Thursday evening to Friday afternoon we will see an extended time period of HEAVY snow. 

There will still be a chance of freezing rain/sleet/ice for northern Arkansas and southern Missouri.  Here is a look at the probability of ice accumulation of at least .25".   A few places still under that moderate chance. 

We are expecting the heavy snow Thursday to Friday.  How much?  

We are talking about a significant snowfall with this system.  Below is a look at the GFS model of entire storm total.  This is in the form of snow.

You are reading it right.... a few places could see up to a FOOT of snow.  The GFS has moved a little more to the north in the recent run.  I do believe our snowfall estimate is fairly accurate.  I did increase the totals just a bit and I won't be surprised if we increase them even more later in the day.

Our in-house model may be a little over the top... but it is picking up on the fact that some places will see A LOT of snow.

I'm now leaning towards the fact that our northern counties could see a little more than we had initially though.  There will be that distinct cut-off, but that may be moved more to the north of our area. 

By Friday evening, the snow will be gone.  With this deep snow pack, it will turn our temperatures colder than forecasted so we may have to change that a little. 

Please be careful.  If you need to get out and about to get supplies.. today and tomorrow morning will be the best time.  Make sure you check back often!

- Meteorologist Natalie Nunn