UPDATE: Thursday Morning
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Just wanting to give a quick update this Thursday morning.  Scattered showers have moved throughout the area this morning... this isn't our main rain event. 

There will be a short break in the rain as the cold front is still sitting out to the west.  This will bring the next round of heavy rain.

A few thunderstorms could pop-up today.  The SPC has our area under a slight risk.  Our main threat will be strong winds and heavy rain. 

 

Heavy rainfall totals are still expected and I'm sticking with the forecast Craig has below.  By Friday the rain will be shifted mainly to the east.. that doesn't help those eastern counties where we expect the heaviest of rain to fall.

Please be careful this afternoon as the rain starts to fall.

-Natalie Nunn

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Hello and thanks for stopping by the KSPR Weather Blog!  I hope you enjoyed the sunshine Wednesday because we may not see it again until the weekend.

The storm system that helped to create the windy conditions Wednesday will move into the Ozarks Thursday.  This will lead to scattered showers and storms mainly in the afternoon, evening and overnight period into Friday.  The National Weather Service has already issued a Flash Flood Watch through Friday for areas east of Springfield.

The area highlighted looks to be where the heaviest rains will fall thanks to the cold front associated with the system "slowing" down a bit.  This will allow for training of showers and storms as moisture surges along the front.

I'll let the Hi-Res FutureCast below show you the evolution of the rain through early Friday.

It looks like the rain will clear out from west to east Friday afternoon and evening.  For some of us the rain will end Friday morning while areas east and southeast of Springfield will remain in the rain through the afternoon.

That is where the problem will lie with the flash flooding threat.  The Hi-Res FutureCast shows rainfall totals of over 6 inches in some locations!  This is possible although most of us will receive anywhere from and inch to three inches.

Each model run will be important to watch to see if the trend above continues.  If it does some areas will deal with quickly rising waters Thursday night into Friday.

Stay tuned to KSPR as well as KSPR.com for the latest.

Meteorologist Craig Carnesi