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Hello fellow KSPR weather bloggers, and hello to any newcomers who have joined us here on what has become a fun and informative weather blog for those interested in keeping up with Ozarks weather.   

I have spent the last several weeks researching past weather patterns, current trends, and trying to combine various things like the sun’s solar cycle, arctic sea ice increases, snow cover over Canada and of course ocean sea surface temperatures.  So many different things have to be taken into consideration when making a long-term forecast for the region. As you all know these forecasts are many times for fun and while science plays a big role into what makes the forecast, remember Meteorology is the only science that is not exact so take everything in the following winter forecast with a grain of salt and an open mind!   

Here is a look at what NOAA is forecasting for the upcoming winter season in regards to temperatures and precipitation. As you can see much above normal temperatures and much above precipitation is all being considered for your region. I will already say I don’t totally agree with that.

Next is a look at teleconnection patterns.

The term "teleconnection pattern" refers to a recurring and persistent, large-scale pattern of pressure and circulation anomalies that spans vast geographical areas. Teleconnection patterns are also referred to as preferred modes of low-frequency (or long time scale) variability. Teleconnection patterns reflect large-scale changes in the atmospheric wave and jet stream patterns, and influence temperature, rainfall, storm tracks, and jet stream location/ intensity over vast areas.  

Some of these different patterns are referred to as the NAO AO and PNA. The NAO is the north Atlantic oscillation which as of lately has been negative and looks to stay negative for several more weeks which corresponds to very cold air for the Great Lakes and Midwest.

Previous years NAO

   Recently and 14 day forecast of NAO 

Now I won't continue to bore you with the other indicies but I will mention that many are trending toward a very cold December.

Other things like arctic sea ice is of interest as more of a snow and ice pack means colder air to come rushing down from the north.

Next the solar cycle and currently we are in a period of very low solar activity and hardly any sun spots at all as we are in the part of the 11 year cycle where not much is happening.

Here is a look at the likely storm tracks for the upcoming winter season. Now not every track will be like this but more times than not we will see the jet stream positon setup as so especially early on in the winter season. This track is conducive for above average precip. for our region.

So my breakdown for the upcoming Winter will be below average temperatures for our region and even colder temperatures in the upper great lakes region where temps will stay very cold. December looks to be well below normal for us with some slight moderations as we head into January where we could see a mid-winter thaw sometime late in the month. February will remind us that we are still in winter and another cold period will play out through the middle of the month. March continues to hang out with the cooler than normal readings before we head into another active severe weather season.

With looking at precipitation I feel we will continue to see above average amounts through our region and through parts of the Midwest. With current storm tracks and with what looks to be an open Gulf storm systems will continue to plauge our area with many clipper like systems moving through and then a few big storms including some ice storms which I feel are likely late Dec. into January. I also think that a white christmas is not out of the question at all.

Here is just a little side note info for you to ponder on.

  *Least Snowiest Seasons Report - Springfield, MO*
   
2005-2006     1.7
1931-1932     2.8
1922-1923     4.4
1935-1936     4.6
1991-1992     4.7
1949-1950     4.8
1982-1983     5.6
1971-1972     6.1
1910-1911     6.1
2004-2005     6.3

*Snowiest Seasons Report - Springfield, MO*
   
1911-1912     54.5
1969-1970     43.6
1917-1918     39.3
2002-2003     38.6
1959-1960     33.6
1918-1919     33.2
1974-1975     32.9
1939-1940     32.1
1983-1984     31.6
1913-1914     30.0

Finally here are some dates to remember over the upcoming Winter. 

Dec. 12: Full Cold Moon, also the Geminid Meteor Shower-all night. The Full Moon will obscure some of the dimmer meteor.

Dec. 18-19 The Moon and Saturn appear close together.

Dec 21.: Solstice

Dec. 22: Moon reaches its Southernmost declination. 

Dec. 27: New Moon

Jan. 4: Quandrandids Meteor shower (very light), Earth's closest point to the Sun.

Jan. 10: Full Wolf Moon. Moon also at perigee (Closest to Earth)

Feb. 2: The groundhog will see his shadow

Feb. 9: Full Snow Moon

Feb. 27: Venus at its brightest and appears very close to the Moon

March 8: Daylight Saving Time begins, Saturn at opposition

March 10: Full Worm Moon

March 20: First Day of Spring-Vernal Equinox

Well there you have it. Below average temps, Above averge precipitation.

December: Much colder than average, with a series of storms through the end of the month. Ice storm possible mid to late december.

January: Starts out colder than normal but an early January thaw with warmer than average temperatures but that won't last long. Again some shots of decent ice/snow events during mid parts of this month.

February: Back down to our cooler than average temperatures and staying active with a continuing trend of above average precip.

March: Winter holding onto the grips of the Ozarks but springtime air trying to battle back in to start our severe weather season out early this year.

Feel free to make your own predictions and comment below on your thoughts and opinions. Again thanks for coming by to check out the KSPR weather blog, I am glad to be a part of this growing community of such loyal weather fans and KSPR viewers and readers. Don't forgot to join us throughout the winter in the KSPR weather chatroom and check out the 24/7 On Demand weather LIVE stream constantly on for your convenience. Have a great Winter!!!!

Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lighty

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