***UPDATED AT 9:10 PM***

Thunderstorms are approaching from the west this evening as expected. There have been some intense winds with these storms (up to 100 mph south of Wichita), but I do not expect them to be quite that strong when they reach the state line. In fact winds of 60 miles per hour have been few and far between in the last few minutes. They should start to cross the state line around 10:15 or so.

I should also mention that with the way the line of thunderstorms is oriented I may scoot the area of heaviest rain south a bit. I'll make a last minute decision before my weathercast after the NBA playoffs. The chat will be open as soon as there are warnings in our viewing area. Check back for updates.

Josh

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Hello bloggers. Another beautiful day across the Ozarks as temperatures warmed to between 85 and 90 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds. You can also certainly feel the moisture in the air! Trouble is brewing out to the west and for some parts of the state and our viewing area a serious flash flood situation is shaping up as we head into Monday evening.

Below is a an image from StormVision Radar.

These thunderstorms are located in northwest and north-central Oklahoma and extend northeastward toward Iowa along a slow moving front. As we progress through the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours the thunderstorms to our west and southwest will form into a MCS (mesoscale convective system) and move into southwest Missouri near or after midnight. These storms will start our flash flooding threat across the Ozarks.

Just about all the items on the "heavy rain checklist" can be checked off for the next 36 hours. We have plenty of convergence along the slowly advancing cold front, copious amounts of moisture (not only in the lower levels but throughout the entire atmospheric column), uniterrupted moisture supply, and slow storm movement. That's why the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for generally areas along and northwest of Interstate 44 in Missouri and quite a large part of the Midwest. I should mention that record flooding continues in Indiana and the Lower Missouri River from Rulo, NE southward to St. Louis will likely experience a signficant flood in the coming weeks along with the Mississippi River south of the Quad Cities to the Ohio River as well!

This matches with model guidance across the region. I like the HPC QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) guidance although I feel it may be a touch too far north. Here is their guidance below.

And here is what I am thinking for the next 24 hours across the Ozarks.

The totals above will be the general totals, but please keep in mind, if a line of intense thunderstorms sets up over your area you could wind up with quite a bit more than what is indicated above. Skill at forecasting these fine mesoscale features in not good his far in advance. I would not be surprised to see a few 5" totals out of this system especially on the Osage Plains to near the Lake of the Ozarks. Those amounts are possible elsewhere around the Ozarks, but the chance is much less.

This could cause significant flash flooding in some places. Those with livestock and cattle along flood prone areas should prepare for flooding along creeks, streams, and rivers and those who live in flood prone areas should keep a close eye on river levels over the next 24-36 hours. On your morning commute tomorrow morning you may encounter flooded roadways so remember...do NOT cross flooded roadways. Staying safe is as easy as that.

SEVERE WEATHER

In addition to the flood threat, some of the thunderstorms could contain damaging winds and large hail. The threat through midnight should be limited to our far northern and northwest counties where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 12 AM.

The threat will then extend down to the I-44 corridor after midnight. The threat for severe weather and heavy rain will exist areawide through the majority of the day on Monday.

Later in the week another storm system could bring heavy rain and severe weather to our area. You can see tonight and tomorrow's rain event and the late week storm in BUFKIT below.

We'll be watching the flood situtation closely and will also be keeping an eye on the late week system as well. I'll have an update later this evening here on the blog and be sure to watch KSPR News at 10 (probably a little later because of NBA playoffs) for the latest weather information. Feel free to ask questions and leave comments and spread the news about the blog. You guys are great! We have again had thousands of people here over the past few days.

Josh deBerge