***UPDATED AT 2:15 PM***

THE CHAT ROOM WILL BE OPEN THIS AFTERNOON AT 4:00 PM.

The front that will spark thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening is to our west by a few hundred miles. It will continue to press east through the rest of the afternoon. There is a strong cap supressing convection right now, but as an upper level disturbance traverses the area, that cap will be broken and thunderstorms are expected to break out in the area shaded in light green.

In fact it looks as if a few thunderstorms are trying to form in north central/northeast Oklahoma as of 2:15 further development is expected.

The atmosphere is moderately unstable to our west with CAPE between 1000 and 1500 in most locations as moisture continues to stream into the area.

Any thunderstorms that do form will have the capability of producing very large hail in excess of golfball size, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The tornado threat does not appear as high as it was on Saturday, but nonetheless tornadoes will be possible this evening especially to the west of Highway 65.

As far as timing, thunderstorms will develop and and move into extreme western Missouri by 4 PM and into the Highway 65 corridor after 6 PM.

Kevin Lighty is out chasing the storms this afternoon and we will have LIVE video from the field during our severe weather coverage (if needed) and during KSPR News at 4:30 and 5:30. KSPR is the first and only place you can see live chase video from southwest Missouri.

We'll keep you updated on the severe weather chances throughout the afternoon and evening. Log on to the blog and chat later this afternoon as the storms approach.

Josh deBerge

***UPDATED AT 10:35 AM***

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning in Stone County and in the panhandle of Christian County. These storms will remain below severe limits, but will contain heavy rain and lightning. These are not the storms we are expecting later today. Dewpoints are approaching 60 in extreme southwest Missouri (but the dewpoint is still only 50 in SGF) and there has been some sunshine today, however, clouds will move back into the area this afternoon. This could limit our severe potential a bit.

The Storm Prediction Center has extreme southwest Missouri in a moderate risk and most of the Missouri Ozarks is in a hatched tornado area which means they think a few strong tornadoes are possible. I am not quite sure I buy into this as the wind fields are relatively weak, but it is something we will certainly be watching and everyone else should keep a close eye on things this afternoon!

Josh

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Good morning bloggers. The discussion regarding severe weather is below. But first, I spent the majority of the day Monday touring the damaged areas in Newton County and the destruction this tornado caused is amazing. I stood at the intersection of Highway 43 and Route BB and as far west and east you could see, there was complete devastation. These are just a couple of pictures of the type of damage I saw.

There were very few homes in the tornadoes path that are livable and many were completely swept away.

Despite the the fact that this tornado was a violent tornado, an EF4, the number of people killed (16) and injured (212+) was needless and, in the majority of cases, preventable. In this day and age of instant notification via cell phones and pagers, radio and television coverage, the Internet, and early warning sirens, there is no excuse for being caught off guard during severe weather, especially when a tornado has been on the ground for 30+ miles. Over the past 50 years, the National Oceanic and Atmopsheric Administration has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on tornado and severe weather research, and The National Weather Service has become astute at issuing warnings with more than 20 minutes of lead time, as was the case with the Newton County tornado.

In fact, here are some ways folks were warned of the tornado

- Most television stations in the area had mentioned the possibility of severe weather and tornadoes as much as TWO days in advance.

- At 5:00 PM we sent out text messages to individuals in the far southwestern Missouri counties (Newton and Jasper) saying "Severe thunderstorms are moving into some parts of southwest Missouri."

- At 5:30 PM before an official warning was issued, we sent out another text message to the folks in those same areas saying "tornadic thunderstorms are moving into some parts of southwest Missouri."

-At 5:35 PM a Tornado Warning was issued for Newton and Jasper County (a warning had been in affect for adjacent Cherokee County, KS since 5:14 PM).

According to the National Weather Service, the tornado crossed into the counties at 5:59 PM.

I know this may seem harsh (and please know that my thoughts and prayers are with the families who lost loved ones), but we can't keep having this happen in Missouri or anywhere else for that matter. There are two things every person can do to make sure their families don't suffer the same losses in future storms.

1. GET A NOAA WEATHER ALERT RADIO

Get one today. They are relatively inexpensive ($30.00 at Wal-Mart) and easy to get. Even if you have to set aside 5 dollars a month...do it. It could save your life. I recommend the Midland WR-100. I'll even personally step you through programming it.

2.  BE AWARE

Simply pay attention to weather forecasts. The old joke of weathermen being right 50 percent of the time is, well, old. Our forecasts (as an industry) are much better than they used to be. If we mention severe weather, we're serious. Take note and consider keeping a closer eye on the sky during the timeframe we specify.

Hopefully as we see more and more events like the one over the weekend, more and more people will take severe weather seriously and it won't be "unexpected" as so many tornado survivors always say. I know most here on the blog already do the things listed above, but share this with your friends and family and encourage them to buy a weather radio and maybe even check in on the blog every once in a while.

SEVERE WEATHER

Now on to our severe weather chances for today. It appears there is another threat of severe thunderstorms today, some of which could contain tornadoes.

We are watching an approaching storm system that moved out of the Rockies overnight and into the central Plains. But later this afternoon a cold front will approach from the west to the south of a very strong area of low pressure.

Ahead of the storm, moisture will likely make a return. This is key to our severe weather threat later today and the extent/magnitude of the event. The more moisture we have (i.e. dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s) the more severe the storms and the higher likelihood of tornadoes. Models want to bring copious amounts of moisture northward. Below is the NAM forecast (GFS is similar) for dewpoints later this afternoon.

I am not sure that dewpoints will get quitet this high, but dewpoints as high as 64 are not out of the question and this should be sufficient for severe thunderstorm development. We'll also have to see if clouds develop under a fairly well-pronounced cap. If we see abundant cloud cover, instability could be limited.

There will be plenty of lift along the front, but winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be rather weak between 80-100 knots.

As you can tell this is not a classic setup as we will be watching three things:

1. Moisture return

2. Sunshine/insolation which will be reflected in instability levels

3. Somewhat weak wind fields (compared to Saturday's system) We'll also have to see how backed winds become ahead of the front if at all (backed winds indicate a surface wind generally from a southerly or slightly east of southerly direction).

With all that said...thunderstorm development is expected to the west of the Missouri state line by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop as supercells and move into areas west of Highway 65 through 5 PM before heading east. The thunderstorms will likely form into a line as the evening wears on and the tornado threat will diminish significantly as the line moves east of Highway 65.

Large hail up to golfball size, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible this afternoon. Everyone should keep an eye to the sky and stay alert to changing weather conditions. Please your comments, opinions, and questions in the blog. I should be in the office and answering questions throughout the day. Have a good day!

Josh deBerge