***UPDATED AT 12:30 PM***

Just a quick update. Moisture continues to move northward. Dewpoints as high as 60 can be found as far north as Kansas City, but generally dewpoints remain in the upper 50s across most of the area. It appears that in some areas some drier air aloft is mixing down keeping dewpoints nearly steady, although moisture continues to stream in so 60-62 looks probable by this evening and the depth looks decent as well. Below is a map of temps and dewpoint (the green lines represent dewpoint and can be difficult to see).

The slight risk has been upgraded to a moderate risk for areas just to our east where supercells may develop.

For those asking about specific areas and timing...refer to the "in review" section at the bottom of the post. I still expect thunderstorms to move into the western areas well after midnight.

Josh

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Good morning bloggers. This will be one of several updates today so check back often as we continue to examine our chances of severe weather tonight. First, the KSPR Forecast for today includes very warm temperatures in the upper 70s, breezy south winds, and plenty of sunshine. Enjoy the day!

The question all along with our approaching storm system has been with the availability of quality moisture.  Moisture continues to stream northward in full force this morning. Below is the surface setup along with temperatures and dewpoints and winds plotted.

The light green dashed line represents where dewpoints are currently above 60 degrees. Notice those dewpoints are pooled right ahead of the front. It may be until late tonight until those of us in southwest Missouri see dewpoints near 60 as the front moves closer. I feel dewpoints of 59 or above are neccesary for severe thunderstorms tonight and we will likely achieve that amount of moisture (i.e. I think we'll top out at about a 61 degree dewpoint).

Speaking of movement of the front, models continue to slow the progression of the front into the area. It could be closer to sunrise than sundown before severe weather moves into the western sections of the viewing area so I am expecting areas along the state line to experience severe thunderstorms well after midnight. The thunderstorms will likely be in the form of a very strong squall line with perhaps an imbedded supercell or two.

Here is the threat area for overnight tonight:

The main threats appear to be damaging winds in excess of 70 miles per hour and an enhanced risk of very large hail up to or slightly larger than the size of golfballs. There is always a threat of tornadoes with severe thunderstorms, but the lack of really decent moisture means the threat will likely not be enhanced overnight tonight.

With a slower frontal position, Friday could end up being a very interesting day as well. There is some indication that the aforementioned squall line could transition into supercellular mode which may enhance the threat of tornadoes along and east of Highway 65 on Friday. The progression and speed of the front will be crucial in determining this threat.

Here is the SPC's outlook for Friday.

IN REVIEW

OVERNIGHT THREAT: Severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds in excess of 60 miles per hour and large hail in excess of golfball size.

OVERNIGHT AFFECTED AREA: Locations west of highway 65

OVERNIGHT TIMING: Thunderstorms will likely cross the state line sometime well after midnight and move slowly east.

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FRIDAY THREAT: Severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes.

FRIDAY AFFECTED AREA: Locations east of Highway 65, especially east of Highway 5

FRIDAY TIMING: From sunrise on

We'll continue to monitor things throughout the day. Continue to check back in as we will have frequent updates. Feel free to ask quesitons and leave comments in the comments section of this entry. Thanks for stopping by today. Expect another blog entry around noon today.

Josh deBerge