Good morning bloggers. If you thought yesterday was nice, then you will really enjoy today. The wind made yesterday seem cooler than it really was and although winds will continue today I think much warmer temperatures will counteract them. Here are the expected temperature trends for today. The mid-range orange represents temperatures between 70 and 75. Nice!

By later today you will likely see some high level clouds begin to move through the area. These will be advance of our next storm system. By tonight here is where the surface features will be. We will be watching the cold front and associated low pressure system.

It appears right now that the best lift will remain to the north of our area, and luckily, out of the White River watershed so the heaviest rain will remain north. Notice the area of enhanced precipitation on Thursday evening...generally northwest of I-44.

The rest of the area will see the bulk of precipitation from Thursday night through Friday as the front and low approach the area.

Here is the good news. The rain moves through rather quickly and won't linger as this system will be fairly progressive, despite the fact that most of the medium-range models want to create a almost cut-off low. Below is the precipitation oulook for Friday evening.

The severe weather threat looks relatively low with this system as instability is modest and wind shear remains low.

We are still looking at a very nice warm-up from the weekend on and I would not be surprised to see a few locales hit 80!

TORNADO STATISTICS 

I am currently reading a great book called Storm Warning by Nancy Mathis. It is about the May 3, 1999 F5 tornado that swept through the southern suburbs of Oklahoma City. This is a damage photo from that storm. It looks very similar to the damage I saw in Greensburg, KS. It simply looked like a landfill.

Back to the book - it also goes over the history of tornado predictions from the first "tornado forecast" at Tinker Air Force base to the first official tornado watches and warnings. I found it amazing that the U.S. government banned the word tornado from any official statement until the late 1950s and even then they were discouraged from issuing them.

The book has peaked my interest in tornado statistics and in keeping with Kevin's post a few days ago regarding tornado trends, I thought I would post a few statistics regarding tornadoes in Missouri, particularly in southwest Missouri.

One of the first recorded tornado outbreaks occurred in the Ozarks on April 18, 1880. Ninety-nine people were killed in Marshfield alone and another 31 died near Fordland. Here is one survivors account of what it was like when the F4 tornado roared through Marshfield as he sheltered in the courthouse on the town's square.

On May 21, 1957 an F5 tornado touched down just to the east of Winona. That twister killed 7 and injured nearly 100 people.

F4 and F5 tornadoes are not common in Missouri, but the accounts above show they have happened. Here is a list of the most recent F5 and F4 tornadoes in the state (since 1950).

F5 Tornadoes

F4 Tornadoes

The March 21st, 1952 was one of the last tornado outbreaks that occurred when tornado warnings were not common and before they were passed along by television and radio stations. Notice how the number of fatalities and injuries drops off considerably after that. TORNADO WARNINGS WORK and have saved countless lives not only in the Ozarks, but across the country!

The question I have been asked a lot lately is "is tornado alley shifting?" I'll post some statistics from the past couple of years in tomorrow's blog. They might surprise you! Check back then. Otherwise, enjoy today's beautiful weather and get ready for more rain and thunderstorms tomorrow and feel free to discuss today's post or ask questions.

Josh deBerge