Hello everyone. Thanks for checking in with the KSPR Weather Blog today. We will soon be adding a great additional feature which we'll announce tomorrow. Be sure to check in Wednesday to find out exactly what it is and how you can use it to stay on top of active weather across the Ozarks.

And it will come just in time. Another active period of weather is on tap. March has been very active so far with a major winter storm and widespread, record-setting flooding. In fact I did a bit of research - check out some of these statistics.

RAINFALL STATISTICS

So far this year we have received 17.09" of rain which is 10.66" above what is average by this time this year. Normally we wouldn't be at 17" until June 5!

So far this month we have received 7.97" of rain (as of right now the 5th wettest March on record). If we get more than 1.12" of rain over the next 6 days (which is certainly possible) that would make this the wettest March on record. If you recall, this past February was the wettest February on record as well. Never before, as far as records have been kept, have we had back-to-back wettest months!

And for those of you who are wondering, the wettest month on record is July of 1958 when 18.75" of rain was recorded at the Springfield Airport.

WARMER TODAY

With all of these thoughts on wet weather, let's enjoy the dry weather expected today and for at least the first part of tomorrow. Today, temperatures will rise well into the 60s in most places as warm air and moisture is advected into the area. Look below at today's expected high temperatures.

You can see moisture increasing across the area beginning this afternoon. Below are the dewpoint trends showing the source of our moisture. I've also included a BUFKIT image showing the moisture trends from this morning (first graphic to tomorrow (last graphic).

Meanwhile, a front will become stationary across the Ozarks and will be the focus of a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as Wednesday morning (especially north in areas along and north of Highway 54 although the threat remains areawide, but the activity will not be widespread). The nocturnal development of the low level jet Wednesday night will likely help produce enough lift to create showers and thunderstorms areawide as the warm moist air is lifted up and over the front. Where exactly the front lines up across the area will determine who will see the heaviest rain.

I should mention that while some pockets of heavy rain are possible, this rain will not be anywhere close to last week's amounts and will likely lead to primarily localized flooding. However, it should be noted that it will not take a lot of water to send rivers back up again. Below is total rainfall expected through Saturday. Amounts near .75" look likely. Areas that see repeated thunderstorms, or training storms, could see amounts up to 2" through Friday morning.

The main show will likely be on Thursday night as the front that will waffle back and forth near the area will finally be kicked south as a somewhat strong disturbance moves along the front. As it moves through, it will interact with moisture and instability with thunderstorm development likely. Surface instability will peak out around 1500-1900 j/kg which is quite high. Below are a few different severe weather indices...all of the red bars indicate indices that are quite high.

Wind fields are not overly impressive, but they are strong enough for the possibility of severe thunderstorms across both the Missouri and Arkansas Ozarks. Hail looks to be the greatest threat at this time.

One thing that COULD limit our severe weather chances is a layer of warm-air aloft. This means lifted indices may not be as favorable for strong updrafts, but this is assuming the models are resolving both the mid and upper levels accurately. We'll have to wait and see if the trend continues.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER

After this round of rain, we'll remain dry for the first part of the weekend before a stronger storm system moves through on Sunday into Monday. Thunderstorms, some strong are possible with this storm and we'll have to watch it closely for that and heavy rain potential (much heavier than the system expected later this week). We'll see copious amounts of Gulf and Pacific moisture surge into the area which will likely lead to heavy rain.

We'll be watching this very, very closely and hope you will too here on the blog. Again, check back on the blog tomorrow afternoon to find out what the big announcement is and feel free to ask any questions and leave your comments. Have a great day.

Josh deBerge