***UPDATED at 12:00am***

A large area of heavy rain moving through the Ozarks overnight. Take a look at the latest image from Storm Vision 3D Doppler Radar.

With February being the wettest month on record for Springfield, the already VERY saturated ground can't take much more and flooding will be likely. Several counties are now under Flood Warnings.

Kevin Lighty

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Well it sure has turned out to be quite the weekend across the Ozarks as we saw an incredibly warm day with sunshine through most of the morning and afternoon before clouds have started to move back in. We have quite the complex storm forecast to make over the next 48 hours so hold on tight, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

First of all take a look at high temps across the region.

Coupled with a very strong southwesterly flow all day it sure felt nice, but winds were quite gusty. A look at wind gusts from the 3pm hour. Whoh look out Joplin.

So as we all know when we get days like this that are out of the ordinary for this time of the year, something has got to give. Mother Nature likes to balance things out and take ya flying back in the other direction, and that is exactly what is going to happen.

First of all due to the already saturated ground and the enormous amount of rain showing up on forecast models a Flood Watch is in effect.

Not only that but also a Winter Storm Watch to follow.

First off we will talk about our chances for any severe weather. Well the SPC does have parts of the Ozarks basically west of highway 65 under the slight risk to catch some severe storms this evening as moisture and little to no cap with some lift will kick of storms with marginal instability of near 1000 J/KG.

While we do have the threat for strong storms, it mostly looks like a damaging wind and hail threat, and only the slight threat of a tornado. Time frame of this with last from late tonight as storms fire up and overnight.

Heavy rainfall will accompany any of these storms as ample moisture return will be available as a wide open gulf surges moisture northward.

NAM Total Precip

GFS Total Precip

As you can see the NAM is putting out more precip than the GFS, and the GFS is also lagging back the cold air arrival a little longer than the NAM, thus taking snow totals down on the GFS solution.

Four panel look at surface prog chart from tonight through Tuesday. Click on images for a bigger view.

Notice how long moisture sticks around.

Here is a look at the NAM. Again click on images for a bigger view.

Notice the transition from the rain into a freezing rain and sleet mix during the day tomorrow, to all snow by Monday night and into Tuesday.

The track of our low is a classic setup for good snow across the Ozarks. Below is the forecasted track.

A typical low will produce the heaviest snow from 100 to as much as 250 miles northwest of its track.

The HPC forecast for snow of at least four inches. Green outline is 40% chance.

As far as model output on snow totals, the NAM goes crazy and the GFS much lighter.

NAM showing from 12-24".

GFS Shows Much Less and closer to 3"-6".

Here is a look at the NAM Bufkit Rain is green, red is freezing rain, orange is sleet, blue is snow. As you can see the Snow arrives earlier and lasts longer with the NAM model.

My thoughts on snow is that there will be an area where a very heavy band of snow will setup. Right now Branson, up through Ava, Mountain Grove, Houston to Salem could see the heavier band of snow as of right now. The thing is there will be a very very sharp cutoff from where that heavier band sets up in relation to where lighter amounts will be. So much to the point where one part of the county may received 8" of snow and on the opposite side maybe only 2" of snow. With that being said it is very complicated to forecast exact snow amounts since it will all depend on where the heavy band will be. In that heavier band up to a foot of snow is not out of the question while most other areas may receive 3"-6" of snow.

I want to show what our futurecast model is showing as far as snow goes. It looks a little more like the GFS. I also think it gives a good representation of what I mean by 3"-6" likely in several locations, with some area that will see locally higher amounts. So just look at the graphic below, don't focus on the numbers but more of the trend of where the heavy band could setup. Also remember that movement of the low 20 miles north or south drags that heavy band north and south as well, so it is a very "fluid" situation.

As things becomes more clear we will update the blog as needed.

Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lighty