***UPDATED @ 2:00 PM***

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch which is in effect for areas generally along and north of Interstate 44 until 9 PM this evening. This includes the Springfield metro area. Thunderstorms continue to develop and will strengthen throughout the afternoon. Expect a graphic shortly and updates throughout the afternoon and evening.

***UPDATED @ 12:30 PM***

STORMS DEVELOPING

Scattered thunderstorms have form in eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. These are the scattered thunderstorms we we talked about in the earlier blog. Look  below at StormVision Radar from 12:25. I have circled the developing storms. They will be moving to the north-northeast this afternoon and more will be developing in a scattered nature across the area. Some of them could strengthen and turn strong to severe late this afternoon.

The orange box I drew in is where some much more unstable air resides and this will be pushing to the northeast this afternoon as well so additional and stronger thunderstorm development is expected later this evening as well.

The Storm Prediction Center has also told us that a watch is possible by 3 PM this afternoon. As soon as it is issued, you'll see it on our main page and we'll post the details about it right here on the blog.

Josh

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OK bloggers. Buckle up for a wild ride over the next 24-36 hours. We'll go from basking in spring-like weather back to more winter-like conditions in a short amount of time. During the transition (as we've been saying since we first mentioned it on the blog on January 2,) powerful thunderstorms look to be a good bet. In fact additional weather data coming in overnight looks more favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms tonight.

First, I want to mention that the blog is in severe weather mode for the first time, meaning updates will be much more frequent. We'll try to answer all the questions and comments that come in as soon as possible, especially later today. This is also the place to submit any storm reports you may have if you experience active weather this afternoon and tonight.

Below is the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center. The area outlined in green is the area that is under a slight risk of severe weather today and tonight.

The front to our west will finally progress slowly east througout the day today. Below is a look at the 6 AM position of the front which is out in Kansas and Oklahoma. We have a broad southerly flow that continues to keep warm air in the area and keeps moisture on the increase. Temperatures are already in the 60s this morning!

Several weak areas of low pressure will ride along the front and will combine with deep moisture to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area today. Instability looks to increase by this afternoon allowing for additional rapid thunderstorm development. With the wind fields the way they are, any thunderstorm that forms could become severe. There is low level rotation so a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. This is an unusual severe weather setup as development is not as clear cut as it normally is across the Ozarks. We'll nowcast the event as thunderstorms begin to develop later today.

This is the timeline for our event...which we will update throughout the day as more information becomes available and thunderstorms begin to develop.

Only a few showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the entire day today. More widespread thunderstorm development is likely today after 4 PM along the Missouri/Kansas state line south-southwest into sections of Oklahoma. These thunderstorms will strengthen as they move north-northeast along the front. Severe thunderstorms are possible along and east of Highway 71 any time after 3 PM with the best chance coming later in the evening as the storm's eastern progress will be fairly slow. Thunderstorms, some strong or severe, will continue through the overnight hours.

While we do not expect a widespread tornado outbreak with this system, I think areas farther along and southeast of Interstate 44 stand the best chance of seeing isolated tornadoes, however, there is still a small chance area-wide. Otherwise, the main threat is damaging winds and some large hail as well.

Heavy rain will also be possible as storms train over the same areas. It looks like the front will be slow to move through the area so we'll carry shower and thunderstorm chances through Tuesday morning.

Look for another update by late morning and remember to check out StormVision Radar and post your question, comments, and storm reports here on the blog and watch KSPR News at 4:30 and 5:30 for the latest on our severe weather chances. Thanks for making KSPR you source for weather information. Take care and also...enjoy this one last beautiful day before the cooler weather arrives.

Josh deBerge