First off, I visited Mr. Gerdes kindergarten class at Springfield Lutheran School on Thursday to talk about weather and we had a great time! The students there are going to be keeping track of the weather during the month of January specifically for all of us on the blog. I’ll be posting what they have discovered next month. They are really excited about it. I don’t know how Mr. Gerdes does it but he has to have a TON of energy to keep up with those kids! Here’s a photo below of the great group of kids!

This Morning's Weather

Be careful this morning, a thick layer of dense freezing fog is blanketing the area and there could be some slick spots on area roads!

Snowstorm Trends

Now on to the weather, the overnight trends are exciting only if you like snow as there were some slight changes as well as some major changes in overnight models. This was somewhat expected as the storms are now over land and more data is being ingested into the models. First both the GFS and NAM (both are computer models we use) have come in with a stronger and slightly slower solution which both mean perhaps a little heavier snow. The NAM is stronger and slowest and gives us more snow, the GFS, weaker and more progressive with the system. I am going with a blend of the two right now. If the GFS begins to trend toward the stronger NAM, confidence in higher snow amounts will increase and snow total adjustments will have to be made. By the way, as expected. the Winter Storm Watch has also been extended south and east and now includes the Springfield metropolitan area.

We’ll also closely be watching the track of the upper level low which will likely track along the I-44 corridor and also the surface low which will be well to our south. Why is this important? The heaviest accumulations with mid-latitude storm systems are often directly under the upper level low so that would favor our area! The track of these two lows has huge impacts on snowfall rates and thus amounts as they will dictate where the heaviest snow will fall and also where banding might take place. Below is the expected track of the surface low.

One other important change is that the snow may last a little longer than first anticipated…well into the afternoon on Saturday and perhaps into the overnight hours Saturday.

If you refer to the map from yesterday morning, (pictured below) my forecast amounts still stand with 4-8 inches along and north of Interstate 44 (we'll probably nudge this ever so slightly south later this afternoon) and now I’ll also add some locally higher amounts as we will be in the favored track for heavier bands of snow. There is plenty of moisture for this storm to work with.

Although the details have remained a little elusive at times, we have been calling for a significant snowfall for the past several days and this has the potential to be a major snowstorm somewhere across the Ozarks. Be sure to use today to prepare and to finish any errands you need to run before the worst of the weather sets in Friday night overnight into Saturday. We’ll be watching it throughout the day and we will also be updating the blog. In fact I will have much more specific accumulation graphics by 2 PM today. Keep your comments and questions coming!!! Today promises to be a busy day weather-wise. Have a great one! I’m excited…finally some snow.

Josh deBerge