********UPDATE  SATURDAY 8:00AM*******

Happy Saturday!  Heavy rain moving through the Ozarks this morning.  A few of you have probably heard thunder thanks to a few embedded thunderstorms. 

The forecast hasn't changed much since last night.  Here are the highlights:
*Rain and a few thunderstorms morning/afternoon.
*Falling temperatures.  Should be around mid-30's by this afternoon.
* Rain to snow this evening.  Snow will be heavy northwest of Springfield.  (Scroll down for total accumulations) 

Currently, temperatures are above freezing over the area.  But I do expect temperatures to fall throughout the morning hours.

(Some temperatures haven't changed all that much from Craig's post last night) 

As the temperatures fall this afternoon, expect the rain to change to snow.  Heaviest snow will be to the northwest of Springfield.  Draw a line from Joplin to about Warsaw... that should be the heaviest area of snowfall.  In Springfield and along I-44, expect light accumulations.  Less than an inch when it is all said and done.  (by Sunday morning)

Please have a safe Saturday.  Thanks for checking out the blog!

-Natalie Nunn

For those interested, in Springfield we have already seen .22" of rain today .. (Saturday)  Add that to yesterday's amount... we are quickly getting closer to average. 

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Good Friday!  Thanks for stopping by the KSPR Weather Blog.

Above are the 5pm temperatures on Friday afternoon.  Look at the temperature contrast between Nevada at 37 and Hardy, AR at 67.  The cold air is the big key for our forecast over the next 24 hours.

First things first, rain.  Overnight scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the area ahead of a strong storm system.  This rain could add up to an inch to two inches.  Flooding of low water crossings is possible late tonight into early Saturday.  Here is what the Hi-Res Futurecast shows for LIQUID totals.

As the storm system moves into the area cold air will funnel in as well.  Note the temperatures above, the folks in the 30s will see the rain change over to snow first.  These are the areas that could see the heaviest accumulations.  Thus, The National Weather Service has those areas under a Winter Storm Warning.  Meantime the I-44 corridor is under a Winter Weather Advisory.

The temperatures are the BIG key to the forecast over the next 24 hours.  I think all of us start Saturday with rain early.  Then folks along the Missouri-Kansas state line will see a quick changeover to freezing rain to sleet to heavy snow.  Meantime in the central portions of the area, including Springfield, will see the changeover in the late morning or early afternoon hours.  Thanks to the warm ground and time of day, I don't think we'll see more than an inch of snow actually accumulate.  Either way it will be much colder by Saturday night so anything that falls will stick to bridges and overpasses late Saturday into early Sunday.

The best news is we expect abundant sunshine Sunday with highs climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Here is a look at our latest forecast thinking for winter accumulations:

It is important to remember that in this situation a little shift of storm track will make a BIG difference.  Stay tuned to KSPR.com and KSPR-DT for the very latest.  Natalie Nunn will be in with updates during the Saturday edition of Good Morning America.

Please, go out and make it a SAFE and GREAT weekend!

Meteorologist Craig Carnesi