The U.S. economy may be in a deep recession, but the combined effect of plummeting housing values, rising unemployment and crumbling consumer confidence still doesn’t warrant comparisons to the Great Depression. That’s the conclusion of David Mitchell, a Missouri State University economics professor and director of the school’s Bureau of Economic Research.

Still, it's not to say things look good because Mitchell's report on economic indicators for the U.S. and Missouri makes some discouraging predictions for 2009, a year many are businesses are already worried about.

"A lot of them have written off '09,” says Matt Wagner, SBJ reporter. “They're just trying to keep at current levels and avoid cutting any staff and most people are thinking it's going to be a flat year already."

Overall Mitchell's report says the first 2 to 3 quarters of 2009 will be very tough, even more so here in Missouri which is actually faring worse than the U.S. economy in terms of personal income gains, employment levels and gross product.

"Missouri has lagged behind the national economy on several different indicators for years now,” says Wagner. “And when you're going into a recession that's not something you want to see."

Signs also don't look good for the recent unemployment trend in Missouri. Estimates show the state could lose nearly 100 thousand jobs during the slowdown.

"He's predicting that Missouri could see unemployment rates of 7.5% sometime in 2009," says Wagner.

The lone bright spot here in the Ozarks could be the housing market—declining home prices around the county have been driving the recession. But, locally it appears real estate could be rebounding much faster than other areas of the country.

"You've got a couple things happening on a local level that realtors are really hoping things are going to get going,” says Wagner. “And hopefully on a local level, in the Springfield area, we'll really have housing values correct in early 2009."

To read the full story, go to the Springfield Business Journal’s website by clicking here.